The 'I'm really getting tired of this nonsense' guide to bond yield trends

Michael Taft31/03/2010

Michael Taft: There are others who will discuss intelligently the fall-out from Ireland’s financial Black Hole Day (Sli Eile, Stephen Kinsella and Nat O’Connor on this blog for instance). One thing that struck me during the Finance Minister’s robust, if economically-challenged, interview on Prime Time was his contention that things were, like, totally cool. Why? Since he announced the massive give-away, bond yields hadn’t moved. Wow. He made his announcement at 4:30 pm and by 10:00 pm bond yields hadn’t moved. This proved that not only that the international markets were not ‘concerned’ with our financial black hole, they were positively chill (or they just go to bed early).

One could really get tired of this. There’s an eerie anthropomorphic quality to discussions on bond markets. Apparently, these markets can ‘feel’, ‘be happy’, ‘become angry’, ‘contemplate’, etc. and on and on. The trend of commentary usually goes like this: ‘the markets will be concerned if the Government doesn’t get tough on trade unionists, the poor, public spending and businesses in debt’. And when the Government does do tough guy stuff, the bond markets ‘approve’ and so, are at peace.

All this comes from the sound-bite school of deep, thoughtful analysis. Tracking bond yields can tell us many things – and it’s amazing that what it usually tells us is what we want it to tell us: vide the Finance Minister last night. So in that spirit I have constructed my own way of explaining bond yield trends. I have used the gross redemption yields for 10-year plus bonds on the last day of the month, sourced from ISEQ (one of many ways to track borrowing costs). This is what the ‘markets’ are telling me.

APRIL 2008: We are still innocent. The ESRI has yet to discover the recession and predict 3.1 percent growth for 2009. There is talk of property prices but we are assured it will be a soft, gentle landing. AIB is trading at €13.25. In another country baseball season is starting and little boys will be playing well into the bright summer evenings.

Bond Yield: 4.40

SEPTEMBER 2008: The boys of summer are still playing baseball but the financial dogs in the street are muttering something about Irish banks and insolvencies. The Sunday Independent declares that if anything goes wrong, whatever that might be, it will of course be the fault of trade unions. Bank Guarantee announced at the end of the month. Markets don’t have time to react before month’s end because they go to bed early.

Bond Yield: 4.60

OCTOBER 2008: Bankers say everything is fine and they don’t need equity; the markets get worried. AIB trades at €5.00 but no one is fired. Bringing forward the Budget doesn’t help either – especially this budget.

Bond Yield: 4.84

DECEMBER 2009: Markets get less jittery. All that hysterics about the state being exposed to hundred of billions of bank Euros fade away. ISME calls for the suppression of trade unions. Their competitors, the Small Firms Association, call ISME weak on the issue of trade unions.

Bond Yield: 4.47

JANUARY 2009: Everything goes haywire. Markets up in arms. Is it because Anglo-Irish is nationalised or because the Government, only a few days before, was going to pump billions in it because they believed it was still viable? The markets unsure whether the Government was colluding in a tissue of lies and deceit or are just plain idiots. Live Register experiences biggest jump in two decades.

Bond Yield: 5.54

FEBRUARY 2009: The Government goes macho. They kick the unions out of Government buildings in the early morning (and don’t even call them a cab). The Finance Minister announces a pension levy on public sector workers and cuts in the number of special need teachers. Pumped abs and testosterone everywhere. Commentators note that even the weather has improved. The markets, however . . .

Bond Yield: 5.57

MARCH 2009: The Tánaiste declares the Government has public finances under control. No one, not even the omnipotent markets, knows what to make of this.

Bond Yield: 5.45

APRIL 2009: Just to prove the Tánaiste was right, the Government introduces an emergency budget. The markets don’t understand – consumer spending is collapsing, businesses reliant on domestic sales are collapsing; and the Government takes even more money out of people’s pockets. There’s counter-intuitive and there’s counter-intuitive; and then there’s Fianna Fail.

Bond Yield: 5.28

JUNE 2009: The markets reconsider the Government’s emergency budget and their deflationary strategy of cutting €11 billion out of an already debilitated economy over the next four years.

Bond Yield: 5.84

AUGUST 2009: For months the three major credit rating agencies have been downgrading Irish Government debt and are threatening more. Commentators are horrified and claim we’ll never be able to borrow again ever, the Sunday Independent blames trades unions, employers demand the minimum wage be cut (though no one can figure out how this will get cheaper money). The markets, however, prove they have a sense of humour.

Bond Yield: 4.68

THE AUTUMN RUN-UP TO THE BUDGET - NOVEMBER 2009: Everyone is giddy. If the Government keeps their promise to implement a puppy-crunching, Bruce Lee, in-your-face, take-no-prisoners budget, the markets will smile and investors will actually pay us to borrow from them. The Taoiseach promises blood, sweat and bankruptcies, the Tánaiste claims that what ever makes us redundant only makes us stronger; the Minister for Health (sic) goes one better and threatens IMF tanks in every town square in the country if we don’t take the pain.

Bond Yield: 5.16

DECEMBER 2010: The Government introduces a puppy-crunching, Bruce Lee, in-your-face, take-no-prisoners budget.

Bond Yield: 5.18

[For a few weeks everyone’s attention is on Greece and those irrational Greek workers striking and marching in the streets because they don’t want to be the fall-guys and fall-gals for maintaining a strong Euro, Germany’s current account surplus and finance capital’s hopes for a return to Alpha status.]

MARCH 30th 4:30 – 10: 00 pm: The Minister declares markets are totally cool with him shovelling up to €20 billion in Anglo-Irish (proves what shrewd market players the Cabinet are), that the economy has turned the corner, unemployment is stabilising and we’ll return to growth this year. Recession? What recession? The only recession is in your mind, dude.

Bond Yield: Moved not one cent according to the Minister.

* * *

All that – all that courageous action the Government has taken that has so impressed the markets – and bond yields are worse than when we started on this dismal path. Of course, there will be those who will claim that if the Government didn’t take courageous action, borrowing costs would have been worse. If so, then why is it high bond yields got worse every time they did?

That’s one way of looking at all this. For another perspective have a read of Michael Burke’s take on borrowing costs and the Government’s deflationary policies. You might have your own perspective. If so, go on to the Irish Stock Exchange website and build your own story.

But, please, just don’t make the markets ‘nervous’.

Posted in: Banking and financeBanking and financeFiscal policyFiscal policy

Tagged with: Bankinggovernment bondsBailoutsNAMA

Michael Taft     @notesonthefront

Michael-Taft

Michael Taft is an economic analyst and trade unionist. He is author of the Notes of the Front blog and a member of the TASC Economists’ Network.


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