Tom Healy: The Nevin Economic Research Institute has published the Autumn Economic Observer here. The key messages are:
* We have choices
* A smaller fiscal consolidation (€2.7 bn) combined with an accelerated investment stimulus next year (of which €500m 'off the books') could create 21,000 additional jobs compared to 'Plan A'
* A Plan B would raise revenue starting with the highest income households (>€100K p.a.) and maintain front line services while re-investing any 'savings' into priority areas such as a Youth Guarantee for unemployed school and college leavers.
* Plan B envisages -7.5% government deficit in 2013.
We have used HERMIN to model the impacts. We have gone with Department of Finance projections and estimates and used the model to show how a reversal of planned cuts would be beneficial and just as efficient in reaching 'Troika' targets. A seminar will present the results today while my colleague Rory O'Farrell and I will present a paper on 'Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Pathways' at the Dublin Economics Workshop to be held this year in Galway next month.
Dr Tom Healy is Director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute (NERI). He has previously worked in the Economic and Social Research Institute, the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the National Economic and Social Forum and the Department of Education and Skills.
He holds a PhD (economics and sociology) from UCD. His research interests have included the impact of education and social capital on well-being.