Exchequer returns: misplaced confidence

An tSaoi02/07/2009

An tSaoi: Last month’s exchequer figures sent the Taoiseach into his garden to tend the green shoots of recovery. This month the Minister for Finance sees hope as the rate of decline in tax revenue decreases. All this confidence, surely it can’t be misplaced?

Well lad, I am afraid it is. A cursory examination of the figures, confirms that the trend is still awful. The June Summary Sheet is as bad as that for May , with the one exception – Corporation Tax.

The Minister played around with the date preliminary tax is payable, and moved forward the due date for half the tax. At least additional €700M was paid in June instead of next November. Take this out and we are still heading for the abyss.

However some taxes are actually getting worse. Last April when he issued his projections for 2009, he estimated that there would be €958M in tax and income levies paid in June. The figure paid was just €800M. That is a discrepancy of 16.5% just two months after the estimate was made.

Looking at the figures, I see no reason to change my estimate made here last month of a final tax figure between €31,500M & €32,000M.

Posted in: Fiscal policy

Tagged with: exchequer returns


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