The Future of the Irish State: 2025 and Beyond

This report investigates the fundamental challenges that will affect Irish society in the years ahead. The climate crisis, digital transformations, and the cost-of-living crisis have all created uncertainty within Irish society, accentuating already eroding trust in government bodies. Now, the State has the opportunity to address these concerns by prioritising interventionist policies that explicitly tackle the issues most affecting people’s lives. This report will assess the State of critical issue areas and identify solutions for emerging challenges – creating a roadmap for policymaking that reestablishes public trust, supports democracy, and enacts positive longterm change.

Economic context

The years following the financial crisis and Great Recession have been tumultuous for the Irish economy. From Brexit and Covid-19 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing costof-living crisis, the Irish economy has overcome challenges and performed well. High levels of growth, demand and employment, and low levels of inflation and unemployment suggest a strong economic environment. However, a legacy of underinvestment in public infrastructure threatens to undermine the State’s long-term growth. The Irish State should leverage its strong economic positioning to embrace an interventionist approach to policymaking in critical areas that pose serious challenges to society in the short and long-term, namely climate action, artificial intelligence (AI), and the cost of living. These concerns threaten to reshape ideas about work and society in Ireland, including those of public sector workers. This report aims to evaluate the scale of these challenges, assessing the existing policy environment and worker perceptions of these issues. By examining case studies of ambitious state action in other countries, the report aims to outline how the Irish State could address critical challenges in a way that facilitates the creation of good jobs and improves life opportunities, with implications for participatory democracy and trust in the State itself.

Making it affordable for people to live and work

Approximately one in five respondents to a recent survey of Fórsa members reported that they expect their job satisfaction and quality of life to decline in the coming years. This sentiment is particularly prevalent among younger members below the age of 45. Growing job dissatisfaction and pessimism about the future of work are especially notable among younger workers. This is unsurprising given the significant increases in the cost of living since 2022 due to global shocks, which have exacerbated long-standing recruitment and retention crises across the public sector. These challenges have created more difficult working conditions for staff and negatively impacted the provision of public services. Additionally, roles involving face-to-face delivery of services have not benefited from the improved flexibility that other workers have experienced with the expansion of remote-working practices in recent years. The high cost of living is leading to a rise in the number of people living in commuter towns, and the Government’s failure to invest in public transport infrastructure means public and civil service workers are facing longer commute times, often by car. To secure a better standard of living for workers, we recommend that the Government:

• Increase intervention into the cost of essential goods by exercising price control mechanisms and boosting the self-sufficiency of the agriculture and energy sectors by investing in high-intensity food production methods and renewable energy sources.
• Increase investment in transport infrastructure to reduce commuting times. Investment has been promised in the 2025 budget, but transportation to and from commuter towns and within rural areas must be a priority.
• Promote planning approaches that favour compact, high-density development to create walkable neighbourhoods that reduce the need for car travel.
• Promote flexible and sustainable work practices, including a four-day work week, for public and civil service workers and explore avenues for expanding remote work.

Climate action and a just transition for workers

The current climate emergency and necessary transition to a low-carbon economy will inevitably have significant impacts on the workforce, and it is imperative that it be a just transition for workers and wider society. While debate about climate action has often been framed as a conflict between jobs and the environment, progressive visions for a Green New Deal in recent years have demonstrated how the transition to a low-carbon economy can be achieved while creating decent, green jobs and a better quality of life. However, to achieve widespread community buy-in for such transformative climate action, the State must consider how to achieve the pace and scale of climate action required while simultaneously tackling inequality and addressing unique concerns across local areas, whether urban, rural, or semirural. To support workers and the general public in this transition, we recommend that:

• Increased and sustained investment is made to create jobs in new and emerging green occupations and training for upskilling transitioning occupations in line with current climate and biodiversity plans.
• An ambitious government-backed programme of paid training opportunities is developed for people to gain skills related to clean energy, conservation, circular economy, and climate resilience, ensuring well paid jobs in these sectors in the coming years and decades.
• A ‘community wealth building’ approach be adopted across Ireland to utilise climate action as a conduit for channelling the public spend away from centralised responses to climate change towards sustainable local development and employment opportunities.

Artificial intelligence and protecting workers in an era of digital growth

Artificial intelligence (AI) has experienced rapid development in the past few years. Today, it has the potential to disrupt existing patterns of labour and reshape our ideas of what skills are most required. The Irish Government is actively working to enact a digital transformation agenda, and AI could offer important organisational benefits to productivity. However, these new technologies present very real risks to the public, including algorithmic bias, inaccuracies, and a loss of transparency and accountability in governance. Furthermore, AI adoption could have a transformative effect on the Irish labour markets by replacing some occupations while augmenting the labour of others. Public sector workers will not be immune to this trend: as the skills needed within public services provision evolve in response to AI, workers will need to update their skills to adapt to a more digital government ecosystem. To this end, we recommend that:

• The Government should integrate complementarity into AI planning by identifying which AI applications are likely to augment or replace jobs and support policies that ensure workers benefit from AI’s introduction.
• The Government should collaborate with unions to expand access to upskilling programmes that target high-risk workers, focusing on skills less replaceable by AI, such as interpersonal communication and nuanced problem-solving, with on-the-job training to reduce time burdens.
• The Government should promote informed awareness by bridging knowledge gaps on workplace AI activities through training and information campaigns, helping workers understand AI’s benefits and risks for a smoother digital transition.